Jan 1, 2006 12:00 PM

The clock is ticking down on 2005 as my hard-working staff of editors scrambles to get this issue to press. There are lots of distractions this time of year (I can hear the accounting department whooping it up down the hall, and will someone please turn down the volume on The Nutcracker Suite….), but there are advantages to writing this column at the eleventh hour. For one, all the other prognosticators around the marketing industry have chimed in with their forecasts for 2006. I've read their newsletters, their blogs, even the letters tucked in with their holiday cards. Some were conservative, others alarmist, and others optimistic beyond reason. Now it's my turn. I try for a balanced view, so I like to think my expectations for the new year are pretty reasonable.

• Unimpressed brands: 2006 will see gathering momentum in the downward slide of old ROI models of “impressions” or “eyeballs” or “headcount.” The 30-second spot isn't dying, but it sure isn't healthy, and marketers are demanding smarter metrics.

• The shrinking globe: As agencies beat each other out for clients stateside, shops of all sizes and capabilities are lifting their sights to overseas markets. Watch for strategic acquisitions and partnering in a “flattened” landscape (thank you, Thomas Friedman).

• A tangled Web: While experts like Robert Coen and others offer and then rethink forecasts on 2006 ad spending, they uniformly agree that the biggest increases in 2006 will be on the Internet. And those are just the media buys! Expect continued money, creativity and energy to flow online, especially as peripheral technologies come of age. As Max Lenderman of GMR Marketing says in our special report this month (starting on p. 28), “We're not far away from virtual event marketing becoming as prevalent as physical marketing. Figure in the pervasiveness of hand-held networking devices, and it's not unrealistic to host events for millions of people around the world without putting up a single Port-a-Potty.” Yay! In fact, we're tracking interactive marketing closely: This month, we're conducting research among our readers on the subject. We're also launching a brand new awards program to recognize the best work being via these new virtual technologies. It's an exciting way to kick off the new year. I hope you'll join in!

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